Switzerland’s economy is expected to remain resilient and largely withstand the impact of US tariffs over the next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Forecasts for annual growth, adjusted for major sporting events, have been lowered by only 0.1 percentage point for both 2025 and 2026. The median forecast from eight economists projects expansion of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026.
Economists anticipate some short-term weakness following a growth surge early in the year, which was fuelled by export frontloading ahead of US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.
They expect the upcoming growth figures on Friday to likely reveal a slight contraction in the second quarter, with a recovery gaining momentum toward the year’s end, Bloomberg reports.
“We don’t see a recession in Switzerland at all. The economy is not roaring, but it’s still growing,” said Jean Dalbard of Bloomberg Economics.
Switzerland is grappling with a 39% tariff, the highest among developed nations. Although this tariff is now in place, the country continues to negotiate with the US, leaving open the possibility of a revision.
At the same time, President Trump has also threatened to impose taxes on pharmaceutical imports, which would deliver an additional blow.
“In Switzerland, severe job losses are all but certain in the coming months, if there is no swift resolution to the US tariff shock. It is clear that this would make many Swiss manufacturing companies uncompetitive in the US market and drive out production to neighbouring EU countries,” according to Bank J Safra Sarasin Ltd Chief Economist Karsten Junius.
If the high tariffs remain in place for an extended period, it could raise the likelihood of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) implementing negative interest rates, Junius noted, following their decision to reduce borrowing costs to zero in June.
However, most forecasters in the survey still anticipate the SNB’s benchmark rate will stay at zero through the end of 2027, unchanged from their expectations prior to last week’s tariff implementation.